America News Agency

"Chinese consumption contracted as the country's post-pandemic rebound has run its course. Global gains are forecast to average just below one mb/d in 2024 and 2025, as subpar economic growth, greater efficiencies and vehicle electrification act as headwinds," read the latest IEA Oil Market Report released Thursday.

Global supply rose 150 kb/d to 102.9 mb/d in June as field maintenance eased and biofuels rose, offsetting a significant drop in Saudi flows, according to the IEA: "Solid monthly gains pushed 2Q24 output 910 kb/d higher q-o-q. Growth of 770 kb/d is seen for 3Q24, with non-OPEC+ providing 600 kb/d of the gains. Annual increases of 770 kb/d are forecast in 2024 with gains of 1.8 mb/d next year."

Global refinery throughputs are forecast to rise by 950 kb/d to 83.4 mb/d in 2024 and by 630 kb/d to 84 mb/d next year. Weak demand and poor margins pressured Chinese and European crude processing in May. Margins declined in the Atlantic Basin in June and are close to multi-year lows. In Asia, they rebounded modestly in June as run cuts eased regional crude market tensions.

Crude oil prices recovered from six-month lows in June, with Brent futures rising by $5/bbl to $86/bbl. The IEA report stated that falling crude stocks, investor short covering, and renewed Middle East geopolitical tensions contributed to the price strength, with fund positions recovering from historically low levels.

"Global observed oil inventories rose for a fourth consecutive month in May by 23.9 mb. Offshore inventories drew by 17.3 mb while on-land stocks built by 41.3 mb to a 30-month high. OECD industry stocks rose by 27.8 mb to 2 845 mb but remained 69 mb below their five-year average. Preliminary data show global oil stocks falling by 18.1 mb in June, dominated by crude while products built," said the IEA report.