Precious Metals: UBS Warns Against Profit-Taking Risk
Istanbul, December 25 (Hibya) - Gold, silver, and platinum have reached new record levels ahead of the year-end holiday period, but UBS emphasizes the need for caution due to the rapid price increases, particularly regarding profit-taking moves due to low liquidity.
UBS strategist Joni Teves said in a note sent to clients on Wednesday, "The rally looks a little unstable, and the speed and magnitude of the move are surprising even the most optimistic market participants." "While the weakness of the dollar has helped, it is difficult to identify a specific trigger that convincingly explains the scale of the rally in precious metals."
Gold and silver futures were in an uptrend this week, reaching new highs in both Monday and Tuesday's trading sessions. On Wednesday, they were trading at $4,521.90 and $72,365 per ounce, respectively.
Platinum futures reached a record high, surpassing $2,300 per ounce, driven by tight supply and strong investment demand.
As a result, platinum continued its longest winning streak since 2017, marking the tenth consecutive session of gains and increasing by more than 150% this year, achieving its largest annual increase since 1987.
Analysts noted that precious metals "showed sharp gains before the year-end holiday period," reminding that platinum gained about 40% in December, and palladium gained around 34%.
UBS believes the scale of the rally "appears a little unstable" and argues that it is "difficult to identify a specific trigger that fully explains the power and speed of this move." UBS warns that although the weakness of the dollar, tightness in silver, and supportive risk sentiment across commodities have contributed to the rally, these factors are "not convincing enough to explain the scale of the rally."
The company adds that the platinum jump coincided with strong inflows of investment funds, tightening futures markets, and high trading volumes in Guangzhou, while silver was supported by copper prices and "entered unknown territory."
UBS also believes that recent geopolitical developments have strengthened the safe-haven appeal of gold. However, the bank emphasized that short-term risks have increased. "Given the size of the price increases, which have reached new record levels, short-term players also face a high risk of profit-taking," it said.
Weak year-end liquidity "likely amplifies price movements" and makes interpreting short-term movements more difficult. Despite this cautious approach, Teves highlighted that the bank's analysts "maintain their optimistic stance on precious metals until 2026," emphasizing that their forecasts have "significant upside risks."
Usa News Agency